A Salute to Threats of Voter Revolt

Yes, the peasants are revolting... at least, you could be forgiven for finding them so if you spend any amount of time reading the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the opponents of the bill. 

The Argument:

Ah, single-issue voters. An effective tool for legislative change, just look at the Legalise Cannabis Party!

If you vote FOR the Marriage Amendment Bill, you'll lose the support of ultra-conservatives.

Where it falls down:
What conservative votes do Labour, the Greens, Maori, Mana and Act have to lose?

The only party this threat actually threatens, is National. NZ First have shown their mettle by boldly covering their asses and shunting the responsibility onto the public, with Winston's ringing endorsement of his own irrelevance to the legal process. Consequently NZ First gets a free pass from conservatives. Labour, Mana and the Greens were never going to receive votes from conservatives. The only conservative in the token libertarian party in NZ, ACT, happens to be John Banks himself, who will lose the only support he has if he doesn't vote in favour of this legislation. This leaves National.

Now, roughly half of National are voting FOR the bill, and roughly half AGAINST. If this threat to vote-out those who support the bill has any legs, if the threat is followed through, National may well lose the next election. Contrary to Su'a William Sio's claim that supporting the bill will cost Labour the next election, the efforts of opponents of the bill to withdraw support from National on the grounds of a single issue, could end up handing the election to Labour instead. Of course it's bound to give Colin Craig's Conservative Party (CCCP) a bounce in support, so he looks set to make off like a bandit in all this. I do so hope he enjoys his time in Parliament with a Labour-led government setting the agenda.

A Winner is YOU!